Cost of Light rail to Vancouver

Compared to Express Bus-Short, light rail costs $302,000 per increased rider that wouldn't take the bus
Compared to Express Bus-Long, light rail costs $495,000 per increased rider that wouldn't take the bus
It would literally be cheaper to buy a Pearl district condo for each of those light rail riders that would not ride the bus.

Effect of Light Rail on Traffic Congestion

The proposed light rail system is forecasted to increase the capacity across the Columbia by only 7%.

Are new riders attracted to transit by Light Rail?

Compared to Express Bus-Short, rail gives a 31% increase in ridership for $1.2 billion.
Compared to Express Bus-Long, rail gives an 18% increase in ridership for $1.19 billion.
(Spending 37 times the money increases transit ridership by only18%.)

Questions that should have been asked:

  • How much must we spend on a deluxe bus system to match the ridership of light rail?

  • How many riders would we get if we spent $1.2 billion on a really good bus system?

  • For a given amount of money, which option will give the highest transit use?

  • How accurate are the projections?
    (The Eastside light rail was 55% over budget,
    the Westside light rail was 394% OVER budget,
    tram is now 700% over its original estimate, )

Portland is a national leader in light rail construction.
Portland was also the nation's leader in increased traffic congestion.
These two facts are not un-related. It is time to admit that light rail is a failed experiment that didn't deliver on its promise to reduce congestion.

Light Rail: Costs too much, does too little.

Printable PDF of this page

Calculation Details to Support The Above Statements

The Portland/Vancouver I-5 Transportation and Trade Partnership was formed by the governors of Oregon & Washington to make recommendations about the congestion problem on I-5 between the Rose Quarter and SR-500. They forecasted the costs and riderships of two bus options and light rail for a loop going up I-5, over to I-205 and down I-205 to Gateway.

(all data is for the evening rush hour and is from www.I-5partnership.com ):

Express Bus-Short

3 lane/LRT loop cost: $1,222 million for 13,000 riders

3 lane/Express Bus-Short cost:

$14 million for 9,000 riders

Increase due to rail cost: $1,208 million for 4,000 more riders (subtracting the two)

Cost per increased rider: $1,208,000,000 ÷ 4000 = $302,000 per increased rider

Express Bus-Long

3 lane/LRT loop cost: $1,222 million for 13,000 riders

3 lane/Express Bus-Long cost:

$32 million for 10,600 riders

Increase due to rail cost: $1,190 million for 2,400 more riders (subtracting the two)

Cost per increased rider: $1,190,000,000 ÷ 2400 = $495,000 per increased rider

It would literally be cheaper to buy a Pearl district condo for each of those riders that would not ride the bus. (Of course it would hard to identify those individuals)

Effect of Light Rail on Traffic Congestion

The proposed light rail system is forecasted to carry only 2400-4000 passengers that would not have otherwise taken the bus, thus its real effect is to remove those 2400-4000 people from the road.

Using the higher number of riders: Since the study period was a four hour evening rush period, those 4000 people are 1000 people per hour. At an average car loading of 1.2 people, that is 833 cars per hour removed from the road. The capacity of a freeway lane is about 2000 cars per hour, so the effect is to add 42% of one lane of freeway capacity (or 25% of one freeway lane if you use the 2500 riders forecast).

Considering that the current capacity is 6 lanes (the forecast was for I-5 and I-205 river crossings combined), the added 42% of one lane is an increase in capacity of 7% to the current 6 lanes in the study area (or 4% if you use the 2500 number). ----- For $1.2 Billion.

Are new riders attracted to transit by Light Rail?

Another way to look at the projected data is how much does constructing light rail increase transit rider ship?

(Repeating the charts)

3 lane/LRT loop cost: $1,222 million for 13,000 riders

3 lane/Express Bus-Short cost:

$14 million for 9,000 riders

Increase due to rail cost: $1,208 million for 4,000 more riders (subtracting the two)

Increased ridership: 4,000 ÷ 13,000 = 0.31 - A 31% increase in ridership for spending an additional $1.2 billion

Express Bus-Long

3 lane/LRT loop cost: $1,222 million for 13,000 riders

3 lane/Express Bus-Long cost:

$32 million for 10,600 riders

Increase due to rail cost: $1,190 million for 2,400 more riders (subtracting the two)

Increased ridership: 2,400 ÷ 13,000 = 0.18 - An 18% increase in ridership for spending an additional $1.19 billion.
This is spending 37 times the money for an additional 18% transit rider ship.

Notice that as the bus system got better, it captured even more of the light rail riders. A spending increase of 229% got 15% (9,000 to 10,600) more riders. Would another 229% spending increase get another 15% ridership increase? If so, the bus would be carrying around 12,484. This is only 515 riders less than rail, or only 4% less than rail, for a cost of only $74 million compared to$1.2 BILLION.

Here is the question that should have been asked:

How much must we spend on a deluxe bus system to match the ridership of light rail?

Look at dedicated bus ways AND buses on HOV lanes.

Date source: http://www.i-5partnership.com/reports/q3.html (Attached).

Rider Ship is from the "Travel Time" section (circled in red).

Costs are from the 'Cost' section (circled in red).

According ODOT, the cost estimate was made by consultant Parsons Brinkerhoff in cooperation with Tri-Met and the ridership projections were by Metro and David Evans.

Also see the video: Evaluation of Rail Transit Projects with Tom Rubin (19 meg file) at http://www.saveportland.com/